Pengaruh PDB, Investasi Asing Langsung, dan Keterbukaan Perdagangan terhadap Emisi CO₂ di Lima Negara dengan PDB Terbesar Dunia

Feryanto Nababan; Armin Rahmansyah Nasution

doi:10.31004/riggs.v5i2.8934

Authors

Feryanto Nababan Universitas Negeri Medan
Armin Rahmansyah Nasution Universitas Negeri Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31004/riggs.v5i2.8934

Keywords:

Emisi CO2, FDI, Fixed Effect Model, Keterbukaan Perdagangan, PDB Per Kapita

Abstract

Peningkatan emisi karbon dioksida (CO₂) akibat aktivitas ekonomi global menjadi perhatian serius dalam agenda pembangunan berkelanjutan internasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) per kapita, investasi asing langsung (Foreign Direct Investment/FDI), dan keterbukaan perdagangan terhadap emisi CO₂ per kapita di lima negara dengan PDB terbesar dunia, yaitu Amerika Serikat, China, Jepang, Jerman, dan India, pada periode 2010–2024. Data sekunder bersumber dari World Bank/World Development Indicators diolah menggunakan regresi data panel. Pemilihan Fixed Effect Model (FEM) sebagai model terpilih didasarkan pada hasil Uji Chow (F = 107,79; prob. 0,0000) dan Uji Hausman (χ2 = 62,52; prob. 0,0000). Uji asumsi klasik menunjukkan model bebas dari multikolinearitas dan heteroskedastisitas. Hasil estimasi FEM menunjukkan bahwa PDB per kapita (koef. −0,000256; prob. 0,0000), FDI (koef. −0,390; prob. 0,001), dan keterbukaan perdagangan (koef. −0,047; prob. 0,008) masing-masing berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap emisi CO₂ per kapita. Secara simultan, ketiga variabel berpengaruh signifikan (F = 482,67; prob. 0,000) dengan nilai Adjusted R² sebesar 0,978. Temuan ini mendukung Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), Pollution Halo Hypothesis, serta dominasi technique effect dan composition effect dalam Trade and Environment Theory. Implikasi kebijakan menekankan pentingnya sinergi antara pertumbuhan ekonomi, arus investasi ramah lingkungan, dan liberalisasi perdagangan berbasis teknologi hijau dalam mendukung transisi energi dan dekarbonisasi global.

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