Analisis Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia dan Kurs Rupiah terhadap IHSG di Indonesia pada Tahun 2000-2025

Raymond Panturi  Siboro; Armin Rahmansyah Nasution

doi:10.31004/riggs.v5i2.8861

Authors

Raymond Panturi Siboro Universitas Negeri Medan
Armin Rahmansyah Nasution Universitas Negeri Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31004/riggs.v5i2.8861

Keywords:

Ketidakpastian Kebijakan Ekonomi Global, Harga Emas, Kurs Rupiah, Regresi Linier Berganda, Pasar Keuangan

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh harga emas dunia dan kurs rupiah terhadap ketidakpastian kebijakan ekonomi global (Global Economic Policy Uncertainty/GEPU) di Indonesia selama periode tahun 2000 hingga 2024. Ketidakpastian kebijakan ekonomi global telah meningkat signifikan sejak krisis keuangan 2008, pandemi COVID-19, serta konflik geopolitik Rusia-Ukraina dan Timur Tengah. Harga emas berfungsi sebagai aset safe haven sementara kurs rupiah mencerminkan arus modal internasional. Menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode regresi linier berganda dan estimasi Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) pada data tahunan sebanyak 25 observasi, penelitian ini menguji hubungan antara variabel independen (harga emas dunia dan kurs rupiah) dan variabel dependen (indeks GEPU). Hasil uji asumsi klasik menunjukkan bahwa model memenuhi uji normalitas (Jarque-Bera probability >0,05), bebas autokorelasi (Breusch-Godfrey p-value 0,0650), bebas multikolinearitas (VIF <5), serta homoskedastisitas (Breusch-Pagan p-value 0,5097). Temuan utama membuktikan bahwa secara simultan harga emas dan kurs rupiah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap GEPU dengan nilai adjusted R-squared sebesar 81,09 persen (F-statistic 52,45; p=0,0000). Secara parsial, harga emas dunia berpengaruh positif dan signifikan (koefisien 0,077; t=4,32; p=0,0003), demikian pula kurs rupiah menunjukkan pengaruh positif dan signifikan (koefisien 0,012; t=2,97; p=0,0070). Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa peningkatan ketidakpastian kebijakan ekonomi global mendorong kenaikan harga emas sebagai aset safe haven serta melemahkan nilai tukar rupiah. Implikasi kebijakan mencakup perlunya diversifikasi cadangan devisa dan penguatan instrumen lindung nilai.

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