Analisis Kebijakan The Fed (Suku Bunga, Quantitative Easing, dan Inflasi Amerika Serikat) terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Indonesia

Risma Yofa; Erna Herlinawati

doi:10.31004/riggs.v4i4.4960

Authors

Risma Yofa Universitas Indonesia Membangun
Erna Herlinawati Universitas Indonesia Membangun

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31004/riggs.v4i4.4960

Keywords:

IHSG, Kebijakan The Fed, Quantitative Easing, Inflasi Amerika Serikat

Abstract

Studi ini menyelidiki dampak kebijakan moneter Federal Reserve System (The Fed) terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dari Januari 2020 hingga September 2025.Kebijakan moneter The Fed diwakili oleh Suku Bunga dasar,Quatitative Easing (QE), dan tingkat Inflasi Amerika Serikat. Pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode pengujian deskriptif digunakan berdasarkan data sekunder dari 69 observasi time series bulanan yang diperoleh dari data ekonomi Federal Reserve System (The Fed), Bursa Efek Indonesia, dan Yahoo Finance. Metode regresi berganda diterapkan dalam penelitian ini dengan dukungan sopftware SPSS sebagai alat analisis. Pengujian hipotesis tradisional memastikan bahwa model regresi memenuhi kriteria normalitas dan bebas dari multikolinearitas dan homoskedastisitasBerdasarkan estimasi regresi, Suku Bunga The Fed, Quantitative Easing, dan Inflasi Amerika Serikat secara parsial dan simultan ada pengaruhnya positif yang signifikan secara statistik pada IHSG. Berlandaskan standardized beta, faktor yang paling dominan mempengaruhi fluktuasi IHSG adalah Suku Bunga The Fed. Koefisien determinasi sebesar 68,8% menunjukkan bahwa variasi IHSG dapat dijelaskan oleh ketiga variabel tersebut. Hasil ini menyoroti pentingnya peran kebijakan moneter global dalam menjaga stabilitas pasar saham Indonesia.Khusus dalam konteks ketidakstabian ekonomi pasta-pendemi COVID-19 kajian ini menambahkan nilai pada literatus ekonomi melai penyediaan bukti empiris mengenai berkembang seperti indonesia, sekaligus mendorong penguatan strategi kebijakan domestik untuk mitigasi risiko eksternal di tengah era globalisasi.

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