Dampak Perubahan Profitabilitas Akibat Kriris Global terhadap Harga Saham pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Indonesia: Studi Periode 2019-2025

Sindy Nur Smadi  Putri; Anisaul  Hasanah; Firdaus Indrajaya  Tuharea

doi:10.31004/riggs.v5i2.8889

Authors

Sindy Nur Smadi Putri Universitas Gresik
Anisaul Hasanah Universitas Gresik
Firdaus Indrajaya Tuharea Universitas Gresik

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31004/riggs.v5i2.8889

Keywords:

Harga Saham, Krisis Global, Perusahaan Manufaktur, Profitabilitas, Return On Assets

Abstract

Krisis global periode 2019–2025, yang dipicu oleh pandemi COVID-19, instabilitas geopolitik, dan gangguan rantai pasok, memberikan tekanan multidimensional terhadap perusahaan sektor manufaktur di Indonesia sehimgga mempengaruhi kinerja keuangan dan pergerakan harga saham perusahaan. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh perubahan profitabilitas perusahaan manufaktur terhadap harga saham selama periode krisis tersebut. Menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif, studi memanfaatkan data sekunder dari 60 perusahaan manufaktur tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada 2019–2025. Analisis regresi data panel dengan Fixed Effect Model (FEM) digunakan untuk menguji dampak tiga indikator profitabilitas: Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), dan Net Profit Margin (NPM). Hasil analisis parsial menunjukkan bahwa ROA, ROE, dan NPM berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap harga saham, dengan ROA menjadi variabel paling dominan dalam menjelaskan perubahan harga saham. Secara simultan, ketiga indikator profitabilitas tersebut menjelaskan 65,9% variasi harga saham, menegaskan bahwa profitabilitas merupakan prediktor utama kinerja saham pada masa ketidakpastian ekonomi. Temuan ini menekankan pentingnya efisiensi operasional dan pengelolaan aset untuk mempertahankan daya saing serta menjaga kepercayaan investor. Implikasi penelitian menyarankan agar manajemen perusahaan manufaktur memprioritaskan strategi peningkatan profitabilitas sebagai bagian dari upaya mitigasi risiko selama krisis, sementara investor dapat menggunakan indikator profitabilitas sebagai sinyal utama dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi. Penelitian ini berkontribusi pada literatur terkait hubungan antara kinerja keuangan dan nilai pasar perusahaan di masa krisis ekonomi.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Y. R. Hidayat, E. Mahpudin, and Disman, “The Effect of Profitability on Company Value Moderated by Crisis Events (2008-2022),” Int. Conf. Sustain. Econ. Manag. Account. Proceeding, vol. 1, pp. 1770–1775, Aug. 2025, doi: 10.32424/icsema.1.1.401.

Z. Puspitae, T. Zulaika, R. Rahmiati, C. Fransiska, and L. M. Angela, “Do financial signals matter? The influence of profitability, stock price, and dividend policy on investment decisions in Indonesian manufacturing firms,” J. Account. Invest., vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 298–313, Jan. 2025, doi: 10.18196/jai.v26i1.20353.

L. S. L. Putri, H. S. Widiawati, and S. P. Winarko, “Influence of Foreign Ownership, Company Size, Profitability, and Sales Growth on Transfer pricing (Study on Manufacturing Companies on the IDX 2021-2024),” J. KEWIRAUSAHAAN, Akunt. DAN Manaj. TRI BISNIS, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 194–205, Aug. 2025, doi: 10.59806/jkamtb.v7i2.527.

I. Rea, Maria, and W. Muni, “Influence of Dividend Policy on The Value of Textile and Garment Manufacturing Companies Listed on The Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) For The Period 2022-2024,” J. Pract. Manag. Stud., vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 27–37, Sep. 2025, doi: 10.61106/jpms.v3i2.95.

S. S. Dzreke and S. E. Dzreke, “The fragility of efficiency: How lean inventory strategies amplify supply chain crisis losses – a $2.3 trillion analysis of geopolitical shocks across 1,864 manufacturing firms,” Front. Res., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 45–66, Jul. 2025, doi: 10.71350/30624533107.

I. Puspita Rini, D. Muhammad Naufal, M. Syahrul Kanji, T. Amelia Irawan, and E. Nurjannah, “Analysis of Factors Affecting the Stock Price of Manufacturing Companies in the Food and Beverage Sub-Sector Listed on the IDX in 2020-2022,” Syntax Idea, vol. 6, no. 7, pp. 3268–3276, Jul. 2024, doi: 10.46799/syntax-idea.v6i7.4186.

Y. N. D. Putri, H. Hariyati, E. Wuryani, N. N. A. Triani, D. A. Nuswantara, and P. Pujiono, “The Influence of Green Accounting and Corporate Social Responsibility on Profitability with Corporate Governance as a Moderating Variable in Food and Beverage Manufacturing Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the Period 2022–2024,” Electron. J. Educ. Soc. Econ. Technol., vol. 6, no. 2, p. 1315, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.33122/ejeset.v6i2.1315.

H. Gesuri, F. N. Nasution, and S. Hasyim, “Influence of Leverage, Profitability, and Price Share to Return Share in Manufacturing Companies on the IDX with Company Value as Intervening Variables,” Int. J. Curr. Sci. Res. Rev., vol. 07, no. 07, Jul. 2024, doi: 10.47191/ijcsrr/V7-i7-10.

M. F. Prasetyo, “The Influence of Capital Structure and Profitability on Firm Value in Manufacturing Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange,” J. Financ. Bus., vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 49–59, Feb. 2026, doi: 10.63453/jfb.v2i2.71.

H. N. Afifah and T. T. Listyani, “ESG Disclosure on Stock Prices: The Moderating Role of Profitability in Manufacturing Companies,” J. Akunt. Indones., vol. 15, no. 1, p. 1, Mar. 2026, doi: 10.30659/jai.15.1.1-15.

Vanda Grace Novelia Ohee and Made Gede Wirakusuma, “The Influence of Sustainability Reporting and Profitablity on Investor Trust in Manufacturing Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange,” Harmon. Manag. Int. J. Manag. Sci. Bus., vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 249–262, Sep. 2025, doi: 10.70062/harmonymanagement.v2i3.374.

H. Stephen and D. L. Pakiding, “Carbon Emission Disclosure: Antecedents and Consequences (A Study of Manufacturing Companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange),” AJAR, vol. 8, no. 02, pp. 234–261, Aug. 2025, doi: 10.35129/0x6xet85.

D. D. Nabiilah, N. I. Sholikah, A. N. Z. Fasya, and M. Y. R. Pandin, “Influence of Stock Liquidity, Capital Structure, and Dividend Policy on Company Value in Manufacturing Companies,” Lead J. Econ. Adm., vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 57–65, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.56403/lejea.v4i2.380.

M. K. Rahman et al., “Assessing the Effectiveness of Machine Learning Models in Predicting Stock Price Movements During Energy Crisis: Insights from Shell’s Market Dynamics,” J. Bus. Manag. Stud., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 44–61, Jan. 2025, doi: 10.32996/jbms.2025.7.1.4.

C. Mahmudi and A. S. Bhelawati, “The Influence Of Capital Structure, Tax Avoidance, and Profitability On The Value Of Companies In The Food and Beverage Manufacturing Subsector,” Int. J. Humanit. Adv. Bus. Sci., vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 261–268, Jan. 2025, doi: 10.59971/ijhabs.v2i3.384.

A. Salsabila and V. W. Widajatun, “Navigating the Commodity Rollercoaster: Efficiency, Firm Size and Profitability in Mining Manufacturing under Price Volatility (2020-2024),” Dinasti Int. J. Econ. Financ. Account., vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 3782–3795, Oct. 2025, doi: 10.38035/dijefa.v6i4.5490.

Raul Jordan Reevhandy Lau and Apollo Daito, “The Effect of Financial Disruption, Profitability and Audit Quality on Audit Report Lag (Empirical Study on Manufacturing Companies on the IDX for the 2018 – 2022 Period),” Int. J. Econ. Manag. Account., vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 16–25, Feb. 2025, doi: 10.61132/ijema.v2i2.567.

A. Pramudita and R. Gantino, “The Influence Of Profitability Ratio, Liquidity Ratio, Firm Size And Inventory Turnover On Firm Value (Pbv) (Study On Food And Beverage And Cosmetics And Household Sub-Sector Manufacturing Companies Listed On The Indonesia Stock Exchange 2016-2021 Period),” J. Econ. Financ. Manag. Stud., vol. 06, no. 01, Jan. 2023, doi: 10.47191/jefms/v6-i1-04.

N. Wahyuni, Z. Kahfi, A. Karim, and S. Rahim, “Disclosure of sustainability reports of financial performance of textile and garment manufacturing companies on the Indonesia stock exchange,” Int. J. Manag. Sustain., vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 464–480, Apr. 2025, doi: 10.18488/11.v14i2.4198.

H. Kumar, P. Pandey, T. Dhanabalan, S. Mahajan, R. Jain, and S. Mishra, “Exploring the relationship between company performance and stock price behavior in global markets,” Multidiscip. Sci. J., vol. 7, p. 2025ss0225, Sep. 2025, doi: 10.31893/multiscience.2025ss0225.

F. Nuru, S. Harahap, N. A. Barlian, and K. Kamar, “Analysis of the Effect of Capital Structure and Profitability on Firm Value in Manufacturing Companies,” J. Ilm. Akunt. Kesatuan, vol. 13, no. 6, pp. 2051–2060, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.37641/jiakes.v13i6.4120.

V. K. Oktaviana and S. S. Darmawati, “The Effect Of Green Accounting, Environmental Performance, And Company Size On Profitability In Manufacturing Companies In 2020–2024,” J. Kaji. Akuntansi, Audit. dan Perpajak., vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 170–177, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.35760/jkaap.2025.v2i2.48.

N. Saadah, W. Alayda, and A. Komara, “The Effect Of Current Ratio (CR) And Net Profit Margin (NPM) On Stock Price (Case Study Of Automotive Subsector Manufacturing Companies Listed On The Idx In 2020-2022),” J. Ekon. Teknol. dan Bisnis, vol. 3, no. 7, pp. 970–981, Jul. 2024, doi: 10.57185/jetbis.v3i7.114.

A. N. Hasan, M. W. Abdullah, and R. Aditiya, “Determinants of Disclosure of Carbon Emissions Moderated Profitability in Manufacturing Companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange,” Int. J. Res. Innov. Soc. Sci., vol. VII, no. VII, pp. 1705–1714, 2023, doi: 10.47772/IJRISS.2023.70832.

H. Qian, “A Comparative Study on the Influencing Factors of the Large Chinese and Foreign Shipping Companies’ Stock Price,” in Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Engineering Management, Information Technology and Intelligence, SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications, 2024, pp. 762–769. doi: 10.5220/0012972400004508.

E. Lestari, Y. Setyawati, S. Indah, H. Hirdinis, and M. Goncalves, “Firm Size and Firm Value in Manufacturing Companies Listed on The Indonesia Stock Exchange: Does Profitability Mediate The Relationship?,” J. Apl. Bisnis dan Manaj., vol. 11, no. 3, p. 833, Sep. 2025, doi: 10.17358/jabm.11.3.833.

P. O. F. Putri, Z. Zefriyenni, and L. Lusiana, “The Influence of Profitability, Solvency, Firm Size on Stock Prices With Dividend Policy as Intervening Variable In Manufacturing Companies Listed on The IDX,” UPI YPTK J. Bus. Econ., vol. 9, no. 3, Sep. 2024, doi: 10.35134/jbe.v9i3.290.

E. Hidayah and A. H. Sa’diyah, “Analysis of CSR and Firm Characteristics on the Value of Manufacturing Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange,” Int. J. Econ. Bus. Manag. Res., vol. 10, no. 03, pp. 230–245, 2026, doi: 10.51505/ijebmr.2026.10313.