Manajemen Aliran Modal Asing melalui Jalur Suku Bunga dan Jalur Modal : Studi Kasus Stabilitas Keuangan di Indonesia

Tohap Parulian; Ida Royani

doi:10.31004/riggs.v5i2.11625

Authors

Tohap Parulian Universitas Medan Area
Ida Royani Universitas Medan Area

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31004/riggs.v5i2.11625

Keywords:

Jalur Modal, Jalur Suku Bunga, Arus Modal Asing, Stabilitas Keuangan

Abstract

Penelitian ini mengkombinasikan antara kebijakan moneter dan makroprudensial untuk mendeteksi bagaimana arus modal asing mempengaruhi stabilitas keuangan dan harga. Jalur makroprudensial menggunakan jalur modal, sedangkan jalur transmisi kebijakan moneter menggunakan jalur suku bunga. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis Struktural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) dengan data kuartal time series tahun 2005 – 2025 yang berasal dari Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia dan World Bank. Dalam tekanan arus modal asing, jalur suku bunga dan jalur modal, keduanya bekerja sama untuk menjaga stabilitas keuangan dan mengendalikan inflasi. Faktor utama yang menggoncangkan cadangan devisa, inflasi, dan nilai tukar adalah adalah derasnya arus modal yang masuk ke Indonesia, terutama dari investasi portfolio. Namun demikian, kebijakan perubahan tingkat suku bunga, berdampak besar pada arus modal masuk ke Indonesia. Di sisi lain, suku bunga acuan dan bantalan modal, saling bekerja sama dalam menjaga stabilitas harga dan stabilitas keuangan. Nilai kontribusi masing-masing instrumen seimbang, hal ini menunjukkan kedua kebijakan bersepakat untuk mencapai stabilitas harga dan stabilitas keuangan. Jalur suku bunga berfungsi sebagai instrumen moneter untuk memengaruhi arus modal internasional, sedangkan jalur modal mencerminkan respons investor terhadap kondisi ekonomi domestik dan global. Temuan penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi masukan bagi pemerintah dan bank sentral dalam merumuskan kebijakan makroprudensial dan moneter yang efektif guna meminimalkan risiko volatilitas aliran modal serta memperkuat stabilitas sistem keuangan Indonesia.

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Author Biography

Ida Royani, Universitas Medan Area

Program Studi Manajemen, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis

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